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DTSTART;TZID=Pacific/Auckland:20260429T193000
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UID:10000357-1777491000-1777496400@www.nelsontasmanclimateforum.nz
SUMMARY:WEBINAR - Fuel\, Physics\, and What Comes Next\, with Nathan Surendran
DESCRIPTION:Join the discussion on Zoom by registering here. \nNathan is an energy engineer and Chair of the Wise Response Society who has been writing extensively about the current energy crisis and its implications (see below) \nNZ will probably hit its climate targets. Not because of good policy\, but because the economy is being forced into contraction by an energy crisis that mainstream institutions didn’t see coming – or chose not to. Nathan Surendran connects the immediate fuel emergency to the biophysical economics that conventional policy ignores: declining energy returns\, thermodynamic constraints on transition\, and a coming wave of insolvency and default that may cause more damage than fuel shortages themselves. He presents practical tools for community resilience\, from mutual aid frameworks to fair rationing mechanisms\, and argues that the response must start at the community level because government is not going to lead it. \nOUTLINE: Be Prepared for a Lively Discussion \n1. The good news on climate (that nobody wants to hear) \nNZ is likely to meet its climate targets. Not because of policy. Because the economy is falling off a cliff. Energy price-driven demand destruction is cutting emissions faster than any government programme. Diesel above $4/litre\, petrol not far behind. Businesses are closing\, freight is contracting\, discretionary travel has collapsed. When you can’t afford to burn fuel\, you don’t burn fuel. Emissions fall. This is the climate trajectory nobody modelled – involuntary degrowth driven by energy supply disruption and price shock. \n2. Why this is happening – the energy supply picture \nThe Strait of Hormuz closure and the wider Middle East conflict have taken out a significant share of global crude and LNG supply. NZ imports 100% of its refined fuel. 81% comes from refineries processing Middle Eastern crude. We have roughly 18 days of diesel physically onshore. The government’s fuel plan has no volumetric allocations. Force Majeure declarations have cascaded across every link in our supply chain. I’ve been tracking this in detail:\n– “The Limits to the Energy Transition” (white paper): https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/the-limits-to-the-energy-transition\n– “Hoping the Ship Arrives Isn’t a Strategy”: https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/hoping-the-ship-arrives-isnt-a-strategy\n– “Every Country in Our Supply Chain Has Declared an Emergency”: https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/every-country-in-our-supply-chain \n3. The default tsunami – the crisis before the shortage \nEveryone is watching fuel gauges. But the more immediate shock may be financial. NZ insolvencies were at a 15-year high before Hormuz. Mortgage arrears at an 8-year peak. IRD tax debt past $9 billion. Household debt at 165-170% of disposable income. There was no buffer. When diesel costs flow through to freight\, food\, fertiliser\, and farm input costs\, the wave of business failures and mortgage defaults will hit before physical fuel shortages do. I’m publishing a piece on this shortly – “The Default Tsunami” – arguing we’re watching the wrong metric. \n4. The deeper structure – biophysical economics \nThis isn’t a one-off geopolitical shock. It’s the predictable consequence of building a civilisation on a depleting energy resource. EROI decline means we spend more energy to get energy. The economy is an energy system using money\, not a financial system using energy. The “seamless transition” narrative assumes the global supply chains\, fossil fuel inputs\, and critical minerals needed for transition will keep flowing. They are not flowing. Drawing on Hall\, Keen\, Smil\, Hagens\, Garrett\, Delannoy.\n– White paper covers this in depth: https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/the-limits-to-the-energy-transition \n5. What we can do – community resilience and policy \n– Wise Response open letter: quantified essential use fuel allocation plan (with Mike Hodgkinson\, Laloli Research)\n– Tradable Energy Quotas (TEQs) as fair rationing: https://wiseresponse.substack.com (TEQs article)\n– “When the Trucks Stop” mutual aid guide https://open.substack.com/pub/wiseresponse/p/what-can-i-do-in-response-to-the\n– “No Fuel\, Still Fed” https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/no-fuel-still-fed regional food security framework\n– Local action: council deputations\, community preparedness networks\n– Demand reduction\, negawatts\, fuel-free pathways \nThis webinar is organised by Our Climate Declaration \nand co-sponsored by: \nDegrowth Aotearoa New Zealand \n The Wise Response Society \n Engineers for Social Responsibility  \nThe Nelson Tasman Climate Forum
URL:https://www.nelsontasmanclimateforum.nz/event/webinar-fuel-physics-and-what-comes-next-with-nathan-surendran/
LOCATION:Online (Zoom)
CATEGORIES:Forum
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Pacific/Auckland:20241016T190000
DTEND;TZID=Pacific/Auckland:20241016T203000
DTSTAMP:20241007T074623Z
CREATED:20241007T062831Z
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SUMMARY:Webinar - Community resilience: climate adaptation\, earthquakes\, basic needs - they are all connected\, but we are not
DESCRIPTION:Presented by Jack Santa Barbara \nThis webinar will discuss the uncertain future we face with multiple risks increasing steadily.  Governments are failing to protect us\, placing responsibility onto local communities.  Community resilience building to ensure everyone’s universal basic needs are met is a critical aspect of a secure future.  There are many examples of communities beginning this process\, but more is urgently needed. \nIs your community ready?  Be part of the discussion about how to build community resilience where you live. \nJack is a long-time member of Our Climate Declaration and has organized and facilitated many of OCD’s Economy of Enough webinars over the years.  He is a retired academic and CEO\, and has been a peace\, environmental and justice activist for many decades.  He is currently facilitating a DANZ (Degrowth Aotearoa New Zealand) initiated Community Resilience project. \nMore info and registration: https://www.ourclimatedeclaration.org.nz/community_resilience
URL:https://www.nelsontasmanclimateforum.nz/event/webinar-community-resilience-climate-adaptation-earthquales-basice-needs-they-are-all-connected-but-we-are-not/
LOCATION:zoom
CATEGORIES:External
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/png:https://www.nelsontasmanclimateforum.nz/wp-content/uploads/sites/353/2024/10/NTCF-Website-graphic-545-x-362-YouTube-Horizontal-Ad-2.png
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DTSTART;TZID=Pacific/Auckland:20231206T193000
DTEND;TZID=Pacific/Auckland:20231206T210000
DTSTAMP:20231127T023933Z
CREATED:20231127T023933Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231127T023933Z
UID:10000136-1701891000-1701896400@www.nelsontasmanclimateforum.nz
SUMMARY:Take the Jump – a global behaviour change movement to reduce carbon emissions with less stuff and more joy.
DESCRIPTION:“Take the Jump” is a global behaviour change movement that is positive\, engaging and aims to reach people who are concerned about climate change but uncertain what they can do. The movement grew out of a C40 cities study (The Future of Urban Consumption in a 1.5oC World)\, and is led by a UK-based team. Since 2022\, the Nelson Tasman Climate Forum (NTCF)\, a largely volunteer community organisation\, has been customising “Take the Jump” for Kiwis\, adjusting the messaging and content to our culture and context. \nThis talk will be in two parts: Tom Bailey from the global “Take the Jump” team will talk on how Take the Jump was conceived and designed\, on the scientific evidence behind the six lifestyle shifts that the movement has prioritised\, on the importance of the 5 “Foundation” principles of the movement and on the experience of rolling out Take the Jump in the UK and beyond. \nDr Chris Wheatley from the Nelson Tasman Climate Forum (NTCF) will then explain the modifications that have been made to tailor the shifts to Aotearoa’s culture and context – including the addition of the 7th nature-based shift – and on how the movement is growing in the Nelson-Tasman region and beyond (including with Councils). \nMore information and zoom links here.
URL:https://www.nelsontasmanclimateforum.nz/event/take-the-jump-a-global-behaviour-change-movement-to-reduce-carbon-emissions-with-less-stuff-and-more-joy/
LOCATION:Online
CATEGORIES:External
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/jpeg:https://www.nelsontasmanclimateforum.nz/wp-content/uploads/sites/353/2023/11/9TZI8Y1-1.jpg
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Pacific/Auckland:20231129T190000
DTEND;TZID=Pacific/Auckland:20231129T203000
DTSTAMP:20231121T051329Z
CREATED:20231121T051329Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231121T051329Z
UID:10000135-1701284400-1701289800@www.nelsontasmanclimateforum.nz
SUMMARY:Webinar: The Behavioural Crisis Driving Ecological Overshoot
DESCRIPTION:The folks from Our Climate Declaration are hosting a webinar with Joseph J. Merz is the Co-founder of a number of organisations. He is the Founder and Chairman of the Merz Institute – a research institute largely focused on addressing ecological overshoot at a behavioural level. Joseph serves on the Executive Committee of the Stable Planet Alliance\, and is also a Senior Fellow of the Global EverGreening Alliance. \nMore information here: WEBINAR: The Behavioural Crisis Driving Ecological Overshoot – Our Climate Declaration
URL:https://www.nelsontasmanclimateforum.nz/event/webinar-the-behavioural-crisis-driving-ecological-overshoot/
LOCATION:Online
CATEGORIES:External
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/png:https://www.nelsontasmanclimateforum.nz/wp-content/uploads/sites/353/2023/11/our-climate-declaration.png
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Pacific/Auckland:20230913T190000
DTEND;TZID=Pacific/Auckland:20230913T203000
DTSTAMP:20230823T021300Z
CREATED:20230823T020819Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20230823T021300Z
UID:10000109-1694631600-1694637000@www.nelsontasmanclimateforum.nz
SUMMARY:Framing Messages around Climate Emergency - WEBINAR
DESCRIPTION:The vast majority of people in industrialised countries now accept that global overheating constitutes a serious environmental crisis and that it has been largely caused by human action. Nevertheless\, public commitment to making changes at household and community level and\, most importantly\, to demanding meaningful action from governments\, both nationally and internationally\, remains weak. \nMichael Hanne asks how climate activists can “frame” discussion more effectively to turn public anxiety into upward pressure on government to act. \n \nMore info on this webinar\, organised by Our Climate Declaration\, available here: Framing Messages around the Climate Emergency
URL:https://www.nelsontasmanclimateforum.nz/event/framing-messages-around-climate-emergency-webinar/
LOCATION:Online (Zoom)
CATEGORIES:External
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/jpeg:https://www.nelsontasmanclimateforum.nz/wp-content/uploads/sites/353/2023/08/Michael_Hanne.jpg
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